Urban Design for Long-Term Development

By David Mayer-Foulkes.

Published by Spaces and Flows: An International Journal of Urban and ExtraUrban Studies

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Article: Print $US10.00
Article: Electronic $US5.00

A literature review of long-term urban economics points out the economic dimensions that urban design must address to serve as an instrument for long-term development. Conversely, two econometric analyses of the impact of urbanization on human development (using UNDP’s 1970-2005 database for 111 countries) supports the key role of urbanization for development. The first is a short-term analysis, an innovative, fully instrumented, clustered error growth regression using both levels and changes of independent variables to predict quinquennial changes in income, health, education and urbanization. The second is a long-term analysis, a fully instrumented quantile estimate of levels on levels of the same variables. Explanatory variables include indicators of trade, FDI, institutions and physical geography, regarded as fundamental causes of growth by some researchers. The results show that urbanization is a significant cause of growth with a smaller short-term but a larger long-term impact than trade, institutions and FDI flows. Urban planning and design can therefore have a high impact on long-term economic development.

Keywords: Urban Planning, Economic Growth, Human Development, Long-term Urban Design, Fundamental Causes of Growth

Spaces and Flows: An International Journal of Urban and ExtraUrban Studies, Volume 1, Issue 4, pp.105-130. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Article: Electronic (PDF File; 1.296MB).

David Mayer-Foulkes

Research Professor, División de Economía, CIDE, Mexico, DF, Mexico

A Mexican national, I earned my BA and PhD in Mathematics at Oxford and UC Berkeley. I have been a researcher in economics at CIDE in Mexico since 1991, and direct the journal Economia Mexicana. I have visited at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and the Economics Departments of Brown University and UCLA. I was member of the Mexican Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, and have conducted research for several international organizations such as PAHO and UNDP. My research interests include poverty traps in human development and technology. My multiple steady state models of endogenous technological change represent underdevelopment as a long-term, dynamic poverty trap. They also explain globalization and its current crisis.